First-Time Buyers Pull Back: What It Means for Pretoria East Rental Demand

House price growth is cooling across South Africa, and first-time buyers are a shrinking share of the market. FNB's Residential Property Barometer recorded year-on-year house price growth of 4.9% in August 2026, down from 5.3% in July and well below the peak of over 6% earlier in the year. Lightstone's own data puts national growth at a similar 4.8%, with Gauteng following what Lightstone calls a more modest growth path than the Western Cape. For Landlords and Tenants in Pretoria East, Centurion and Midrand, the more significant number sits beneath the headline: fewer young buyers are making the jump to ownership, and that has direct consequences for rental demand.

First-Time Buyers Are Pulling Back

FNB's Q3 2026 Estate Agent Survey found that first-time buyers made up only 26% of transaction activity in August, down from 32% in May and lower than the same period a year earlier. FNB attributes this to subdued household income growth and financing conditions that remain restrictive for buyers without a large deposit or existing equity. Hayley Ivins-Downes, Managing Executive for Real Estate at Lightstone Property, has separately pointed to a clear drop in participation from buyers aged eighteen to thirty-five, noting that most entry-level ownership activity is now concentrated below the R 1 200 000 transfer duty threshold. Her further observation is the one that matters most for Kingsmark's own market: the rental pool is growing for people up to around age thirty-eight or thirty-nine, as this generation enters home ownership later than previous ones did.

A Slower Sales Market in Gauteng

Gauteng is feeling the affordability squeeze more than most provinces. FNB's data shows Gauteng properties taking an average of twelve weeks and four days to sell, the longest selling period of any region measured, with around 83% of transactions closing below asking price. That gives buyers real negotiating power, but it also means sellers and Landlords weighing a sale should budget for a longer process and a realistic, market-tested asking price rather than last year's valuation.

Pretoria East's own listings tell a slightly different story at the entry-level end. Property24's Trends Data recorded 12 634 active listings in Pretoria East as at May 2026, with an average asking price of R 1 850 000 against an average sale price of R 1 580 000. Two-bedroom homes and sectional title units remain the most widely available stock, and local agents report continued entry-level demand across Pretoria East, Midrand and Centurion, concentrated in secure, lock-up-and-go housing. Buyers who are active are prioritising security, low maintenance and reliable backup power and connectivity, the same features Tenants increasingly look for when renting.

What a Softer Ownership Market Means for Rental Demand

When fewer young households can move from renting to buying, they stay Tenants for longer. That is good news for rental demand but changes what Landlords should expect from this segment of the market.

• Expect longer average tenancies from Tenants in their late twenties and thirties who would, in an easier credit environment, have already bought. Budget for fewer vacancies from this group rather than more.
• Thorough affordability checks remain essential. A Tenant delaying a home purchase is not automatically a lower-risk Tenant, and household budgets across Gauteng remain under real pressure.
• Keep compliance current, including a valid Property Practitioners Act Mandatory Disclosure Document and up-to-date electrical and gas certificates. Longer-staying Tenants place more, not less, weight on a well-maintained, compliant home.
• Price realistically at renewal. Sustained demand is not the same as unlimited room for increases, and a well-priced Lease Agreement protects occupancy over the medium term.

What It Means for Pretoria East Tenants

For Tenants weighing whether to keep renting or try to buy, the current data suggests the trade-off has not shifted much in either direction. Entry-level stock exists and is moving, as Pretoria East's listings show, but financing remains tight for anyone without a sizeable deposit. Tenants who are comfortable renting for now should expect continued, if measured, availability of well-located stock in Pretoria East, Centurion and Midrand, and should raise any affordability concerns with their Landlord or managing agent ahead of a Lease Agreement renewal rather than after signing.

Kingsmark's View

A cooling ownership market and a shrinking first-time buyer segment point toward sustained, rather than spiking, rental demand across Pretoria East. For Landlords, the sensible response is the same discipline this market has rewarded all year: price on current evidence, vet thoroughly, and keep compliance current while more Tenants stay in the rental pool for longer. For Tenants, continued demand for good rental stock has not translated into runaway increases, and well-priced, well-maintained homes in Pretoria East continue to let quickly.

Kingsmark will continue to track Gauteng's sales and rental data as it is published, including the next FNB and Lightstone releases, for what they mean specifically for Pretoria East, Centurion and Midrand.

Landlords requiring professional assistance and guidance, and Tenants planning a move in Pretoria East, are welcome to contact the Kingsmark team.